Will Rainbow shares encounter embarrassment again in the layout of OLED?

Rainbow shares announced on November 9 that its two 4.5-generation AMOLEDs in Foshan, Guangdong Province, will start construction and will become the world's second AMOLED production line. Only Samsung has built such production lines.

With the upgrading of TV display technology, the upstream and downstream affiliates are also undergoing a transformation. There is no doubt that Rainbow Holdings has been ahead of its domestic counterparts in the OLED industry, known as the third-generation display technology. Before that, The company has just completed the transformation of the production of color picture tubes associated with the first generation of display technology to the production of glass substrates associated with second generation display technology.

But it is not a transformation that can be transformed. In the first transformation, Rainbow shares encountered an order problem after the completion of production capacity. What is interesting is whether there will be similar "growth troubles" in the OLED layout with infinite prospects.

Transformation from picture tube to glass substrate

Liquid crystal glass substrates are the hot industry upstream of LCD panels. Prior to this, Rainbow shares mainly engaged in the old-fashioned display technology - CRT display related color picture tube. When the bulky CRT TV was gradually replaced by LCD TV, Rainbow shares gradually completed its transformation from CRT upstream enterprises to LCD panel upstream enterprises.

On November 1, the second phase production line of Rainbow Liquid Crystal Glass Substrate was put into trial production in Xianyang, Shaanxi. One month later, the production line of Zhangjiagang was ignited; in December, the Hefei production line was ignited. Prior to this, Xianyang Phase I project has formed scale production. It is not difficult to see that since then, the layout of the company's glass substrate production capacity has been basically completed.

"Our of our production lines are now full production," according to Rainbow's Dong Xiaotao.

It is not easy for Rainbow shares to complete these layouts. Technology and capital were the problems before them.

The first is technology. A downstream panel manufacturer has said that domestic glass panels have low yields, so they tend to use glass substrates from major international manufacturers. Rainbow Holdings' glass substrate yield was only 40%, but after technical improvement, the current comprehensive yield rate has remained above 60%.

After the technical solution, the above capacity expansion was completed. In order to prepare the production line, on July 30, the company successfully issued 316 million shares at a price of 11.25 yuan. The company's transformation following the industry change was generally optimistic. The IPO price of 11.25 yuan was 70.5% higher than the reserve price of 6.6 yuan. After the private placement, the stock price climbed to a historical high of 20.59 yuan.

However, the behavior of major shareholder reduction at the end of September is undoubtedly a cold water splash on the market. On September 29, Rainbow shares issued a notice on “Shareholders' Shareholding Reduction”, stating that Rainbow Electronics, the largest shareholder, has been sold through the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s bidding trading system from August 19 to September 29, 2010. The conditional tradable shares were 7,310,970 shares, and the shareholdings accounted for 1% of the company's total shares. Subsequently, some institutions also left the market. According to the information of October 14, there were two institutions and large players on the market selling large amounts of transactions. Up to 5.97 million yuan; the stock continued to fall, on October 20, the stock once fell to 15.80 yuan.

"The reduction of major shareholders has made some investors aware of some of the company's problems. Unlike previous optimism, company orders are a big problem," said a panel industry analyst who declined to be named.

"The current competitors of glass substrates mainly come from two aspects, one is Corning in the United States and Asahi Glass in Japan. On the other hand, it is other domestic enterprises," Long Tao said.

It is not difficult to find that these competitors of Rainbow Shares are closely cooperating with downstream panel manufacturers. Corning is supporting the BOE Beijing production line. Japan's Asahi Glass has signed an agreement with TCL in Shenzhen and has supplied 8.5 generations of glass substrates for TCL. The domestic counterpart Dongxu is also supporting production for BOE.

Long Tao told reporters that it is expected that there will be large-scale orders in January next year. In Long Tao's view, the company's advantage lies in the cost. "On the one hand, our current base is adjacent to the downstream manufacturers, for example: BOE's 6th generation line in Hefei, Longteng's 5th generation line in Kunshan, we are supporting and transporting in Hefei and Zhangjiagang. Packaging has great advantages. On the other hand, because energy costs are relatively high in glass substrates, energy costs will be advantageous in domestic production. At the same time, foreign manufacturers are laying out in higher-end production lines, not with us. Produce direct competition."

The second transformation is leading the world

When Rainbow Holdings completed the transformation from the first generation display technology to the upstream enterprise of the second generation display technology, it prioritized the layout of the "third generation display technology" of OLED. According to the group development plan, its layout is ahead of the domestic market. Even the world's peers.

The company announced on the 9th that Foshan's OLED 4.5 generation production line is progressing smoothly. The production line was officially put into trial operation on November 8, 2010. It is expected that the production line will have an annual production capacity of 12 million pieces of PMOLED display after production. At the same time, the company started construction of the 4.5-generation AMOLED production line and the establishment of the 8.5-generation test line to ensure the company's subsequent growth.

The AMOLED 4.5 generation production line started this time with a total investment of 4.96 billion yuan. After completion, it can produce more than 20 million AMOLED screens per year, mainly used for handheld mobile devices, such as mobile phones, cameras, digital cameras, digital photo frames and other electronic products, especially It is a high-end electronic product. At present, only South Korea's Samsung has a similar production line, Taiwan's AUO, Chi Mei, Japan's Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, Sharp, South Korea's LG are developing and planning.

At present, the orders encountered in the first transformation will be encountered again in the layout of OLED?

According to DisplaySearch data, the global OLED panel shipments amounted to US$826 million in 2009, an increase of 35% compared with 2008. The main growth factor comes from the increased demand for AMOLED panels by mobile phones. In 2009, the output value of AMOLED exceeded that of PMOLED for the first time. The shipment amount of AMOLED panel was 537 million US dollars, and that of PMOLED was 291 million US dollars.

It is not difficult to find that Rainbow's small-size OLED screen for mobile phones can be described as "the emperor's daughter does not marry", but is still planning a large-size screen production line for OLED TV?

OLED TVs can be bent or even rolled up, can be hung on the wall, and are bright and colorful, known as the best display technology available today. The earliest company to develop and produce OLED TVs was Sony Corporation of Japan. In 2007, it was the first to introduce an 11-inch OLED TV.

But what is interesting is that Sony's OLED TVs are slow-moving due to the high price. This year, the company announced that it will stop the production and sales of OLED TVs. Another source said that Toshiba's small and medium-sized LCD panel subsidiary has also decided to terminate the mass production plan of OLED panels. The main reason is that the performance of LCD panels is improved and the price is falling, and OLED panels are difficult to obtain a significant return on investment.

"It can be said that the future of OLED is not a mainstream development direction, but the Rainbow shares have to solve the technical problems of the yield of glass substrates," said the analyst.

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