The shrinking PC shipments and the gradual saturation of the smartphone market have enabled manufacturers to speed up the search for the next slogan. Smart watches and smart homes have been heated up, but they have not been accepted by the market and consumers. Recently, news about VR and AR has frequently hit. Does this indicate that the next vent has arrived? How will VR and AR develop in 2016?
Recently, at the “2016 Global VR/AR Trend Forum†held in Shenzhen, top experts and entrepreneurs in the industry discussed the virtual reality industry in 2016. “When did the first virtual reality product appear in history?†Ms. Xu Zhou, vice president of IDG Asia, opened the discussion with a question that puzzled many people. The world's first virtual reality product was the Sensorama launched in 1962. After you put on a chair and put on a pair of glasses, you can experience some three-dimensional virtual reality effects through the three-sided screen. Half a century later, many new technologies and new applications of VR/AR have been presented to everyone, but they are also facing challenges.
Aofei Entertainment: The concept of VR/AR in the content industry
Li Bin, chief strategy officer of Aofei Entertainment, believes that VR/AR can achieve the most advanced experience and experience in the entertainment industry. From the perspective of the whole industry, VR and AR are popular for the past few years. Entertainment, or the first realization of the true meaning of this concept.
So when can we see that the whole industry linkage of pan-fun entertainment is truly realized? When you use VR and AR's production philosophy to re-coordinate all content production and management, it is the real meaning of pan-fun entertainment.
In terms of the platform and process of content production, Li Bin said: "I hope that in the future, we will see that movies and games are really running on an integrated process platform. All data assets are managed on one platform, making the future IP system ten times and two. Ten times speed efficiency improvement. At the same time, the input terminal of the hardware means the layout of the interactive terminal, and makes them form a deep combined product system in terms of hardware, such as vision, motion, touch, etc. At the same time, including the content distribution system. As well as background data operations, especially background data operations, in the entire VR environment, due to the involvement of multiple senses, the total amount of experience data will exceed the speed of our imagination beyond the massive explosion."
Jincheng: Technical and business aspects of the hot VR/AR
VR and AR are currently very popular, but there are many technical and business-level issues. Mr. Jin Cheng, an associate professor and doctoral tutor at Fudan University, believes that the current VR is limited to a wide variety of helmets and glasses, and the product homogeneity is serious.
Jinjiao summarizes the three major problems faced by the virtual reality industry. First, there are still many tasks to be done in the collection and editing of VR content. Secondly, the interaction of AR faces many artificial intelligence problems; the last one is related to Power, not just the power supply. Also related to computing power.
In terms of content collection, it is not simply to see a thing. Standing in the middle can look left and right, it is VR. VR needs more senses or stimulation of taste and smell. In addition to the collection of content, only a very small amount of professional software related to VR can be edited accordingly.
In the use of the AR, it is necessary to understand the entire scene by analyzing and analyzing the image and sound of the scene, and to understand the behavior occurring in the process by capturing the action behavior. In the interactive way, the traditional keyboard or mouse will look very strange, and the combination of touch and screen retrieval is a better choice for AR interaction. There are many artificial intelligence problems behind them.
Wen Jiangtao: How to solve the core problem of VR
Why is VR suddenly becoming interesting in the world? The IEEE Fellow, a visiting professor at Princeton University, and the chief scientist of the technology company, Wen Jiangtao, believe that there are three reasons. First, in the middle of our lives, for the first time in human history, you can store all the music you've heard in this life. You can store all the photos you've taken in this life. The cost is very, very low. Second, everyone has a camera, including cell phones and portable devices. Third, people in the future can go online anytime, anywhere, and business users and bosses can find you at any time.
Although VR is very interesting, there are several core issues in the basic technology. The first is the so-called camera. When the camera is getting smaller and smaller, the pixel sensitivity is getting weaker. In addition, it is difficult to guarantee high quality in a harsh shooting environment, such as a high dynamic range environment and a low light environment. I haven't seen a camera that can really simulate even the level of film camera film. The second is how to ensure the consistency of the camera, the different cameras or different pixels and different positions. Finally, our camera has no depth of field.
How to solve these problems? Wen Jiangtao believes that: "We not only need a systematic solution, but we also need to re-examine the assumptions that the original technology is used to. These assumptions are not suitable for our application environment, such as coding, push and consumption, only the overall promotion. In order to bring about an increase in the performance of the order of magnitude, we can truly realize the so-called beautiful future of VR. In fact, engineers and software engineers first need to come up with a solution that requires a better integration between artists and technical experts. Do things.
Qualcomm: VR becomes immersive experience is possible
We already know that the first virtual reality product in history appeared more than half a century ago. Similarly, in the 1990s, there was a VR boom, but at that time only a small gust of wind failed. Guo Peng, senior product manager of Qualcomm, believes that at the time, from the perspective of content and technology development, it has not reached the ability to make VR enter the ordinary people's home. But from the current situation, the great VR era has arrived.
Guo Peng believes that this industry of mobile phones is the mainstream form of the most promising VR in the future for the mobile all-in-one VR.
In order to provide the immersive experience of the mobile phone, Qualcomm will have super high resolution support in the visual aspect, and the auditory aspect will provide some real resolution sound, high definition sound and some algorithms of 3D sound. At the same time, in the interaction, for some of the user's survey reports and some ergonomic data provided, from the entire head movement to the screen follow-up, from user interaction, gesture tracking, eye tracking, etc., as well as user head rotation And the location tracking of motion movements will optimize the mobile VR experience.
VR market forecast analysis
We divided the VR hardware into three categories, the first one is no screen head display, the second type head display is the PC head display, and the third type is the one machine head display. Ma Boyuan, vice president of IDC Asia Pacific, said that many people are exposed to VR for the first time as the first type of equipment, but in theory, these heads on the PC side may be more extensive than the market where the console is connected. The key to the first and second types of devices is the GPU image processor. The third type of integrated machine head is relatively high-end, which is a big adjustment for consumers.
As for how virtual reality is close to consumers, Ma Boyuan believes that because of the high AR price, it may be more used in industry and commerce, while VR is aimed at consumers. In 2020, IDC predicts that these two pieces add up to almost 100 million devices, and Goldman Sachs predicts that the total amount will be about $80 billion. These forecasts go in different directions, so it depends on the predictions of different institutions. There is also a compound growth rate that will reach 187% in the next five years. If starting from a relatively small basis, this growth rate of 187% does not mean anything, but this growth is still very amazing, very promising growth.
Finally, Ma Boyuan summed up some key points: the creation of content, you can use the existing equipment to do some experiments but to avoid a mentality of the future; in software development, after the code is released, iteratively modify and improve it; On the hardware, don't be careful about the problem of dizziness. If you don't do well at the beginning, it's easy to have a negative effect, which will kill the consumer's desire in the first place.
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