There is no major change in the drivers of air-conditioning growth this year, and demand will remain strong. It is expected that this year's growth rate will be 15-20%. Due to the base number, this year's growth rate will be high before and low. Air conditioning demand will still grow faster in the first quarter, but growth will slow down at the large base last year.
Competitive Landscape: The degree of concentration will be further enhanced. With the cost advantage and frequency conversion, core spare parts technology and production capacity keeping up, the market share of the top few domestic brands will also increase. Under the dual-oligic stability pattern of Greemei, the annual sales and exports of Hisense Kelon increased by 44% and 67% respectively, becoming a major highlight of the second-tier brands.
Product structure: Frequency conversion is universal. In November, inverter air conditioners maintained rapid growth. Due to the base number, the growth rate slowed down from the previous two months, but the proportion of frequency conversion continued to increase. In 2010, the frequency conversion will double, which is significantly faster than the industry level.
Rising prices are imperative: Air-conditioning prices have returned to normal levels after rising in the third quarter of last year. It is expected that there will be a slow price increase in air-conditioning after the Spring Festival. However, the increase will have limited impact on demand. Manufacturers can ease the pressure of rising costs by optimizing the product structure.
Risk Warning: Costs rise; RMB appreciation; policy marginal effect diminishing.
Investment advice: The air-conditioning industry will continue to maintain rapid growth, and valuations have entered safe areas. It is recommended to buy air-conditioned first-line brands such as Midea, Gree, Qingdao Haier, and ST Kelon.
There is no major change in the drivers of air-conditioning growth this year, and demand will remain strong. It is expected that this year's growth rate will be 15-20%. Due to the base number, this year's growth rate will be high before and low. Air conditioning demand will still grow faster in the first quarter, but growth will slow down at the large base last year.
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