Thin film battery costs advantage or grab more installed share

The long-awaited photovoltaic power price has finally come into being. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on August 1 st implementing a nationwide benchmark on-grid tariff for non-bidding solar photovoltaic power generation projects. In fact, the current cost of domestic photovoltaic power generation is still above 1 yuan, and only a few thin-film battery companies can withstand the on-grid tariffs below 1 yuan/kWh. Some analysts believe that because of the price advantage, it may be more advantageous to thin-film batteries with lower investment scale and lower costs. Does the unified photovoltaic power price provide a good opportunity for the thin film batteries that are in a weak development?

The policy forced the market to publish a "Notice on Perfecting the On-grid Price of Solar Photovoltaic Power" according to the National Development and Reform Commission. The notice requires that the solar photovoltaic power generation projects that were approved for construction before July 1, 2011, completed and put into production on December 31, 2011, and have not yet been approved by the Development and Reform Commission, shall be uniformly approved at the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt-hour. The solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and the solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, are still executed per kilowatt hour in Tibet. With the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are all implemented at a rate of 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

But is this price too low? Some insiders questioned that the cost of grid-connected photovoltaic kWh is around 1.26 yuan/kWh, which is higher than the current benchmark price level. If the differences in lighting and labor costs are further considered, the operating costs of the eastern provinces may be even higher. .

"It is not that the more subsidies, the better. Enterprises must be under pressure and innovate, and they must not rely too much on the government." Hu Zhaoguang, chief economist of the National Electric Power Economic Research Center, told Southern Reporter that the introduction of photovoltaic power price is a development of solar energy. One of the deployments. "Using policies to force the market, China's future electricity prices will be lower, because there will be competition between companies and they will look for lower costs."

Prof. Yin Zhongdong from North China Electric Power University stated: “The photovoltaic power generation pricing is a small part of the promotion of solar power generation. The government will also issue decisions based on the situation, constantly adjust policies, guide the market, and explore the mode of operation.”

Prospects for thin-film batteries are promising How to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation? The key lies in battery technology. Solar cell technologies currently in commercial use mainly include: crystalline silicon (single/polysilicon) cells, thin-film (amorphous silicon, CdT e, C IG S) cells, and light-gathering (Gaas) cells.

Among them, crystalline silicon cells are relatively mainstream due to their relatively mature technology and high conversion efficiency. Their market share still exceeds 80%. However, the production of polysilicon in the production of solar cells in China has exposed many unpredictable problems. In fact, the output of photovoltaic products in China ranks first in the world, but 40% of the demand for polysilicon depends on imports. In addition, the upstream polysilicon industry has high technical barriers, large investment, long production time, and high market risk. At present, the state has increased access standards for the polysilicon industry, and there are also restrictions on loans.

Compared with crystalline silicon cells, thin-film cells have more room for improvement in terms of efficiency and cost, and rising polysilicon prices will increase the cost advantage of thin-film cells. Many experts believe that the future growth rate of production and sales of thin-film batteries will continue to be faster than that of crystalline silicon batteries, which will continue to increase as a proportion of the installed capacity of photovoltaic batteries.

It is reported that China has advantages in terms of brand and scale in amorphous silicon thin-film batteries, and amorphous silicon batteries are still the main direction for developing thin-film batteries in China. "Thin-film batteries, once they break through the technical barriers, coupled with policy support, have a competitive advantage in the market," said Professor Hu Gang of Jinan University. With the promotion of domestic B IPV, further development of amorphous silicon technology and C IG S technology, domestic thin-film batteries will face a new round of high-development period and have a huge space for development.

According to Professor Yin Zhongdong, thin-film batteries are characterized by low cost and light weight, and have significant application advantages in the field of building integration. "More competitive, more profitable trends."