When can you bid farewell to subsidies, electric cars: give me 6 years

According to a new report released by energy data analysis company Bloomberg New Energy Finance, electric vehicles will be more economical than fuel vehicles in most countries in the next 10 years.

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It is still unclear whether and when electric vehicles can capture a larger share of the market. This is partly due to the fact that the cost reduction trend of energy technology is difficult to predict, and the other part is due to the uncertainty of global oil price trends.

For example, in December last year, OPEC said that if there is no technological breakthrough, then the electric vehicle will not have a big increase in market share in the foreseeable future. This judgment is very likely, and the current share of electric vehicles in the global automotive market is less than 1%.

The analysis of Bloomberg's new energy finance is relatively optimistic. The agency expects that by 2040, 35% of new cars worldwide will be powered by electricity. This optimistic expectation is mainly based on the speed at which the cost of lithium batteries is reduced. Since 2010, lithium battery costs have fallen by 65%, reaching $350 per kWh last year. Bloomberg New Energy Finance believes that if this trend continues, the cost of electric vehicles in unfunded conditions will be equal to that of fuel vehicles in six years. The agency expects the price of lithium batteries to drop to $120 per kWh by 2030.

This is basically consistent with the analysis published by academic institutions last year. The report at the time believed that the cost of battery fell more than the most optimistic analysts expected a few years ago. These researchers expect that by 2017, the cost per kWh of lithium batteries will be reduced to $230. And if it drops further to $150 per kWh, then "it may trigger a shift in the automotive technology model."

In 2015, sales of electric vehicles increased by 60% year-on-year. If this trend continues and battery costs fall rapidly, then by the 1920s, the global oil industry will face a huge impact.


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