Thanks to its high growth and low valuation comparative advantage, the sector again outperformed the market after winning 5.72 percentage points of the broader market in 2012. As of last week, the Shenwan Appliance Index rose 16.38% this year and was down 1.19% from the same period last year. The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index achieved 17.57 percentage points of excess return, ranking among the top gainers. Among them, the black-electricity and kitchen appliances sectors witnessed a large increase in the first quarter with a high degree of economic prosperity and rapid performance growth. Shanghai Securities data shows that the average price-to-earnings ratio of listed companies in the home appliance industry in 2013 was 11.47 times, which is still at a low valuation level.
Industrial Securities stated that it can be seen from the 2012 annual report and the quarterly report of this year that the overall income growth rate of the household appliance industry has improved from the previous month, and its profitability is at a high level. Data show that the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, the year-on-year growth rate of operating income of the home appliance industry was 14.66% and 18.71%; last year's historical high in the fourth quarter of the industry gross profit margin reached 23.01%, a drop in the first quarter of this year, the net interest rate The level is relatively stable.
This month coincides with the "May 1" holiday, the momentum of home appliance sales continues to be consolidated. According to Yangtze River Securities statistics of more than 20 provinces and cities nationwide home appliance terminal channel sales, the overall performance of domestic appliances during the "51" period is still good. Among them, Beijing Gome's sales increased by 71.6% year-on-year, and sales of traditional home appliances nearly doubled. Shanghai Suning Store's traditional home appliance sales increased by 30% year-on-year, and online Suning's YoY growth reached 250% year-on-year. Chen Zhijian, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, said that the core factor of â€œMay 1stâ€ home appliance sales is the gradual release of renovation needs brought about by the recovery of previous real estate sales; on the other hand, the energy-saving subsidies policy will expire at the end of this month. Continuation of the remaining large uncertainty, so household appliances companies use "51" to increase promotional efforts to reduce the purpose of channel inventory.
In terms of segmentation industry, Changjiang Securities continued to favor the performance of black and kitchen power in 2013. For the white power industry, â€œbased on the relative certainty of its growth rate and weak recovery expectations, we believe its valuation is still improving. "In terms of individual stocks, Changjiang Securities recommended Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Electric Appliances, Sanyo Hefei, and TCL Group, Heisenberg Electric Appliances, Vantage Co., Ltd.
Guotai Junan believes that the robustness of the household appliance industry data before the end of May can be expected. At present, attention needs to be paid to changes in energy conservation and subsidy policies. "On the one hand, if the energy-saving subsidy policy continues, it is very likely that it will be announced in early June. A clear policy point of time may cause short-term fluctuations in the TV industry, but if the decline is not due to withdrawal of the subsidy policy, we believe it will still bring buying opportunities. "Fang Xing Junan analyst Fang Xin said," On the other hand, the air conditioning subsidy policy has little impact on the continuation of or not, the key is still the recent weather. From the weather in the south, the next 10 days are still cool, and from the second half of May. By the beginning of June, it is very likely that it will become hot, and the demand for air-conditioner level 3 and 4 will be started."
Galaxy Securities said that this year's continued decline in international raw material prices will further increase the profitability of the industry. â€œExternal disk data show that on May 3rd, the closing price of copper futures for LME March was approximately US$6,858/ton, which was 13.7% lower than that at the beginning of 2013; LME March aluminumâ€™s closing price was US$1822/ton, which was 11.9% lower than the beginning of 2013. In addition, Since 2013, the price of 32-inch and 42-inch LCD panels has dropped by 6 US dollars and 11 US dollars compared with the end of 2012. Galaxy Securities analyst Yuan Haoran pointed out.
Shangpu Consulting pointed out in the â€œ2012-2016 China Small Household Appliance Market Survey Reportâ€ that after Chinaâ€™s home appliance industry experienced a negative growth in the industry in the second half of 2012, the good start of the first quarter of 2013 indicates that the industry will welcome To restore positive growth. It is recommended that home appliance companies should actively sum up their previous experience of low and high development, guard against overcapacity caused by blind production again, actively promote the upgrading of product structure, and strive for the sustainable development of the current recovery.
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